Online Horse Racing: Today at Belmont Park and Santa Anita
Saturday, October 01, 2011
by Bodog Racebook
About 24 hours before a weekend filled with major stakes races came the first piece of bad news: 2010 Breeders Cup Sprint winner BIG DRAMA has been scratched from the 6 furlong, $350,000 Vosburgh Stakes, one of five G-1 Stakes on the Saturday, Oct. 1 card at Belmont Park.
The second piece of bad news was still playing out through Friday night and into Saturday as heavy rains continued to fall in the northeast, assuring a rain soaked main track and a very soggy turf course for the star-studded Belmont card.
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To be sure, Big Drama is 'OK.' He is not injured, but he did spike a fever that is going to force trainer David Fawkes to train the speedy 5-year-old horse up to the Breeders' Cup Sprint. Back in January, Big Drama won a Graded sprint at Gulfstream Park while earning a sky high 120 Beyer Speed Figure, a figure that still represents the fastest race run at any distance on any surface by any horse this year!
As stated, Big Drama is a very fast horse. Last fall, he went wire to wire in the rich Breeders' Cup Sprint at Churchill Downs, where the same Breeders Cup race will be run this year on Saturday, Nov 5. But since that highly rated January romp, Big Drama only has had one race — easily winning a Sept. 4 ungraded stakes at Calder Racetrack, earning a relatively modest Beyer Speed Figure of 88.
To miss Saturday’s race on his tight Breeders Cup schedule, is not the most ideal way for Big Drama to get to the Churchill Downs’ winner’s circle this year. Moreover, while he rests in Fawkes’ barn, a pretty salty field will compete in the Vosburgh, attempting to win the automatic starting berth in the $1.5 million Breeders' Cup Sprint.
Fact is, Big Drama’s defection from the Vosburgh could give the Bob Baffert trained EUROEARS an important edge as the probable lone speed on a sealed wet racing surface that traditionally favors front runners. A few other Vosburgh contenders include the hard hitting TRAPPE SHOT and a pair of Graded Stakes winners trained by Todd Pletcher, CALIBRACHOA and CAIXA ELECTRONICA.
There are five G-1 stakes at Belmont on Saturday, plus the Grade-2, $200,000 Kelso Mile, which will pit the rejuvenated 3-year-old UNCLE MO against the 4-year-old Forego Stakes winner JACKSON BEND and the 5-year-old JERSEY TOWN. A top performance by Uncle Mo may propel him into the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic, or he might go for the $1 million Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. Jackson Bend and Jersey Town might go for the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, or the Breeders' Cup Sprint as final decisions for all horses in this race will be based on the quality of their respective performances and the inclinations of their respective connections.
While horseplayers will be looking to make good decisions at the betting windows, it would be wise to keep a good notebook of what transpires this weekend.
Besides the Vosburgh and the Kelso, the horses to watch in the other three Graded stakes at Belmont on Saturday, and the four G-1’s at Santa Anita include…
At Belmont:
In the $500,000 Flower Bowl for fillies and mares at 1-1/4 miles on the soft turf, the French import STACELITA will seek to duplicate her scintillating win in the Beverly D at Arlington Aug. 13. The primary contenders are: The Irish bred DELUXE, front running DYNASLEW and vastly improved EMERALD BEACH.
In the $500,000 Joe Hirsch Invitational, also on grass at 1-1/2 miles, the Irish bred, Arlington Million winner CAPE BLANCO seeks his third straight G-1 Stakes victory in America. Competition is likely to come from front running MISSION APPROVED and a pair of multiple Graded stakes winners trained by Christophe Clement — WINCHESTER and GRASSY.
In the $350,000 Beldame, at 1-1/8 miles around one turn for fillies and mares, the headliner is HAVRE DE GRACE, recent winner of the Grade-1 Woodward over males at Saratoga. Her main rival appears to be the 3-year-old ROYAL DELTA , winner of the 10 furlong Alabama Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 20.
In the $750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup for 3-year-olds and up at 1-1/4 miles, the absence of the top older horse TIZWAY, leaves the door wide open for the 3-year-old STAY THIRSTY as the horse to beat. In his most recent start, Stay Thirsty won the 10 furlong Travers despite a difficult trip on or near the pace throughout. His most dangerous opponent Saturday probably will be stretch running FLAT OUT, who was second to Tizway in the Whitney at Saratoga on Aug. 6 and second to Havre de Grace in the Woodward on Sept. 3. Yet, another to consider is last year’s Belmont Stakes winner DROSSLEMEYER, who is bred to kill in the mud.
At Santa Anita, in the four G-1 Stakes on Saturday, I will be looking closely at the following:
In the 1-1/16 mile, $250,000 Norfolk for 2-year-olds, DRILL won the Del Mar Futurity narrowly while enduring some traffic issues and has trained superbly for Hall of famer Bob Baffert. CREATIVE CAUSE, interfered with nearing the wire in the DMR Futurity, might be the one to fear again.
In the 1-1/16 mile $250,000 Lady’s Secret, the high class stretch runner BLIND LUCK returns from a 10 week vacation, but might be vulnerable at a distance that could be a tad too short for her patented late rally. Contenders include the good 3-year-old ZAZU, the two time G-1 winner shipping in from Saratoga — ASK THE MOON — and front running longshot bomb, CHAMPAGNE D’ORO.
In the 1-1/4 mile, $250,000 Yellow Ribbon for fillies and mares on the turf, the probable favorite is DUBAWI HEIGHTS, who was second to Stacelita in the prestigious Beverly D at Arlington in mid august, but just about every horse in the nine horse field has potential winning credentials.
In the 1-1/8 mile, $250,000 Goodwood, the Bob Baffert trained due of COIL and GAME ON DUDE deserve some attention. Coil is eligible to rebound from a dismal Travers, while Game On Dude is very comfortable on this track. There are no throwouts in this prep for the 1-1/4 mile, $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic. Even the longshot 6-year-old mare MISS MATCH has some appeal.
Should you wish more action, there are more Graded Stakes scheduled for both tracks on Sunday and next weekend when Keeneland opens, there will be another round of them. Good luck and good handicapping.
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2010 breeders cup - ask the moon - belmont park - big drama - bob baffert - caixa electronica - calibrachoa - cape blanco - churchill downs - david fawkes
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